Friday, December 18, 2009

It will be too early to draw the conclusion that the current global economic recession crisis is over. Conclusion can not be drawn until we get the final assessment of the costs/impact of recession to world economies. This becomes even more intricate for since the collapse was a global phenomenon, so, no recovery can be said to have occurred if it is not global.

Recession is a ground reality which cannot altogether be avoided. Nevertheless, it is a momentary phenomenon; however worst it may be, it will pass away. But it is that hardship which unveils numerous truths at a time. It is truly a testing time for everybody; even the human values and moral standards are in jeopardy.

One thing is sure, only economic theories do not help in predicting Recession, because sometimes many non-economic factors play lead role in inviting this bottleneck which are hardly noticed. Paul Samuelson rightly states, “What we know about the global financial crisis is that we don't know very much.” To, the economist, real life is a special case. An economist is someone who knows more about money than the people who have it. (George Bernard Shaw) And the Economics itself is the science that hangs like a gathering fog in a valley, a fog which begins nowhere and goes nowhere, an incidental, meaningless inconvenience to passers-by.

Yet, facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. Recession unveils several such facts.

1. Recession is real and can come again. The great depression started in 1929 and naturally, most people have not seen that with their own eyes. So, the idea may have come to many people that USA is the richest country on earth and economic recession would not touch its economy. The year 2008 perhaps taught these kinds of people a crushing lesson that it can happen anytime in any country.

2. It is now fully evident that the key indicator of current recession is the greed of those who failed to anticipate the consequence of their actions which badly affected the lives of billions.

3. Credit Buying is always intoxicating. In the 1920s, the US economy expanded rapidly on the basis of cheap credit, rising money supply and an exuberance bordering on overconfidence. It led to consumers buying large quantities on credit and a booming realty and stock markets. By 1928, the US economy was heavily unbalanced with over inflated asset and share prices. Negligence to same realities allowed history to repeat itself in 2008-09. Sub-prime Mortgages caused almost unhealing ulcers to the world economy and its almost unsure amidst ongoing treatment that cure would total. The Governments should focus on real economic growth attributed by real effective demand. Steroid is not a permanent solution.

4. In any situation, Government should not allow Banks to fail in order to prevent economic earthquakes. In 1920 Depression, one of the most damaging events was the widespread failure of medium sized American banks - with the Federal Reserve unable or unwilling to act as lender of last resort. The widespread bank failure caused a decline in the money supply and loss of confidence in banking sector - investment fell drastically. Same event replicated in 2008. It not wrong, almost 124 Banks have so far gone astray.

5. The rich become richer and the poor become poorer is a cry heard throughout the whole civilized world. Secondly, Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital, in fact Capital is only the fruit of labor. But the irony is such that in tough times, the workers are first to bear the brunt of a crisis that is not of their own making. Workers are the last to benefit from an economic boom but now they are the first to be sacrificed in the midst of a global recession that was sparked by high rollers in the casino capitalism. It is now a high time to have a probe on the very idea of free markets and capitalism. People have started realizing the need of Regulated Free Economy. If there is a lesson to be learned from the present crisis, it is that it’s a time to strengthen the real economy and shutdown the casino economy. It is indeed a height of paradox that even in this distressful recession, nobody has perhaps thought so far about the Bail-outs for workers. If it had been so done, it would have been not simply a measure of social justice, but also a viable solution to the economic slowdown. To protect the human source is the major responsibility of not only the governments, but Corporations too are equally and ethically responsible to do so, not as philanthropists, but as the visionary who can see that skill and strength of human sources is the key factor to reshape future economy. In sharp contrast to this, we have locally witnessed several examples in which sector specific industrialists have marooned hundreds of thousand workers overnight and forced them to commit suicide rather genocide in one-by-one format. As if this was not enough, they shamelessly shirked their own responsibility blaming the Government for not providing bail-out for them.

6. In recession, government cares only for the big companies not poor individuals. It would be interesting to see that bailout plans to support global financial systems of the nations are nothing but a financial looting of country’s exchequer. Question arises from where bailout money comes – Answer is ‘Taxpayer’ who is liable for recession!!! Bailout of US$ 700 million is aimed to help US Fed Reserve to purchase all toxic assets, hold them for years and pay millions of dollars to those firms who would manage them, but not help even a single family to save their home which they have lost. It has been rightly criticized by an American intellectual that the Federal Reserve was not founded to bail out Bear Stearns or a few hedge funds. It was founded to keep a stable currency and maintain its value. Nations borrow billions for war; seldom for education. No nation is rich enough to pay for both war and civilization; it has to choose from one. On account of unreal liquidity pumped into financial systems, stability may again be fancied by nose-less economists, but no surprise, if it turns out to be stillness between tremors.

7. National Debt should not be allowed to increase. The effect of higher National Debt will be higher taxes in the future. The remote but potential risk is that the US government could one day default on its debt. If the US government became a bad debtor, that really would be the end of the world. The dollar would collapse, the financial system would collapse, and in 20 years we would probably be all speaking Chinese. In this context, Mark Faber has rightly regarded the Currency Printer as the most destructive weapon on this earth. Rampant Quantity Easing bangs on to erode purchasing power of currency and result is always immeasurable in terms of inflation.

8. In so far as developing countries are concerned, it is true that many countries have been caught up in this global crisis by Default as a consequence of no precipitating policy actions by their own governments other than endeavoring to participate fully in the global economy and financial system. But, they must now make Better Preparation. A country will be better off in the phase of a global crisis if its own vulnerability is limited, for example, if its fiscal affairs are reasonably stable, if its inflation rate is low, its internal and external debt position is sustainable, and if its exchange rate is flexible. Second, a country will be better off, if it has preserved the room to maneuver to respond to external shocks through the use of domestic policy instruments, primarily fiscal and monetary policies. Besides, Countries should self-insure against future crises by putting in place as best as they can, robust economic and financial policy frameworks. If these lessons are not learned, then the course of globalization could well go into reverse. The risk is that the globalization trend will be replaced with inward-focused regionalism, selfish nationalism, and disguised as well as evident protectionism. A major lesson to be leant is that, export led growth model of development will have to be re-assessed as countries that pursued this model have been hit most due to their expose to the external economies, leaving themselves in utter turmoil. Balancing of export model of development with boosting of domestic consumption is emerging as the best option, not only during this crisis, but also in the foreseeable future.

9. The Human Cost : Lasting nearly a decade, the 1920 Great Depression caused massive levels of poverty, hunger, unemployment and political unrest. The study of the human cost of unemployment reveals that a new class of poor and dependents rapidly cropped up among the ranks of young sturdy ambitious laborers, artisans, mechanics, and professionals, who till the invasion of depression time, maintained a relatively high standard of living and were the stable self-respecting citizens and taxpayers of the state. Unemployment and loss of income ravaged numerous homes. It had broken the spirit of their members, undermined their health, robbed them of self-respect, and destroyed their efficiency and employability. Many households were dissolved, little children parcelled out to friends, relatives, or charitable homes; husbands and wives, parents and children separated, temporarily or permanently……..Men young and old had taken to the road. Day after day, breadlines for food deluged on the roads. … Physical privation undermines body and heart.… Idleness destroys not only purchasing power, lowering the standards of living, but also destroys efficiency and finally breaks the spirit. Did anybody ever think about the present and future cost in terms of skill and efficiency of manpower lost by industry during recession and to be regained aftermath of recession? Those entrepreneurs relentlessly blowing the trumpet of Darwin’s principle of ‘Survival of the Fittest’ for ratifying their own dirty deeds must read - Road to Wigan Pier by George Orwell. They must stop betraying their own conscience by disfiguring the concepts of human welfare, sustainable development, human rights, CSR and such other good-to-hear terminologies. Sophisticated or rude, race of dacoits is same. History is made up of the bad actions of extraordinary people. All the most noted destroyers and deceivers of our species, all the founders of arbitrary governments and false religions have been extraordinary people; and nine tenths of the calamities that have befallen the human race had no other origin than the union of high intelligence with low desires. However, it’s time now to understand that true acumen lies only in preserving valuable scarce resources for future.

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